PM
… . Of course one is very worried about the amount of unemployment but I don't think you can say it's been a year of economic failure. Inflation is coming down and it's coming down fast and it must come down further because without that there's no confidence for the future. Interest rates are coming down, exports have done better than all the economic forecasters predicted so the balance of trade is good. We've had fewer strikes in the autumn period than at any time for thirty years … .
Q
… . no wonder. People are frightened they'll be put out of work … .
PM
… . Wage claims are becoming realistic and that's really what has bedevilled this country in the past, that wages have far, far outstripped output and that's why we're suffering a much worse world recession than some other countries.
Q
But aren't you disappointed at the Government's failure to control the money supply and your requirement to borrow money beyond what you spend?
PM
We have indeed to get down the money supply. It is much higher than it should be and if we don't and it went on going up we should in fact be in trouble within about eight months from now. But I believe that at the beginning of next year the money supply figures will come down. You're quite right, we have been spending rather more than we bargained for. I'm afraid some of it is inevitable during a recession, for example in defence, the orders which should not have been complete until next year have been brought forward into this year and you have to try to find the money now. There also have been problems with the nationalised industries. Yes, I think you do expect [end p1] a certain amount of increased borrowing during a recession but we have to keep it very much under control.
Q
Now all the forecasters agree that unemployment is going to go on rising in the New Year, in 1981, through 1981, perhaps to reach 3 million. Do you agree?
PM
I've never been in the business of forecasting unemployment. I've never known anyone get it right, but I think that it may go up certainly during the winter months and I note that during the lifetime of the last Labour Government it got up as you know to 1.6 million and it stayed high at certain times of the year for three years and it was difficult, much more difficult, to get it down than it was to see the end of a recession. So there are problems there but there are very good things happening on the employment front. For example, every month a quarter of a million go off the Unemployment Register and find jobs. That's the equivalent of one person finding a job every 10 seconds. There's enormously good news from the Industrial and Commercial Finance Corporation—it is there to find finance for new business, enormously good news … .
Q
… . Do you fear … .
PM
… . please let me give the good news because you're always willing to give the bad and you don't chase the good. There's a tremendous vitality starting and please, look on both sides of the balance sheet. Aren't you pleased that more companies started up this year?
Q
Yes, Prime Minister, but thinking of the unemployed in areas like Scotland and Wales and the North of England. Do you fear civil disorder in those areas this year if unemployment continues to rise, as one Select Committee of MPs has suggested?
PM
I think civil disorder would do this country immense harm. Look at the harm that the scenes outside … . [end p2]
Q
… . Is it a possibility?
PM
I don't believe myself it is. Look at the immense harm that the scenes outside Grunwick did, the scenes outside Sheerness, outside Hadfields. If you really want other companies to come in and put investment in this country, civil disorder won't help. But maybe that's what some of the people who are talking about civil disorder may want. They may not want new investment, may not want new business, may not want things to get better. Maybe they do just want an anarchy. I don't. I do want new business, new companies are starting up. I want that to go on.
Q
But what hope can you offer to the unemployed in these areas for 1981, beyond your advice last year to move?
PM
No. If you looked at the whole speech … .
Q
… . I was there.
PM
Well, all right, if you report the whole speech, you'll remember that I said we have a regional policy, we have to move jobs to people but we expect in some cases people to move to jobs. It was both sided and after all people have been moving for jobs strictly for skills for a very, very long time. There is a very forceful regional policy. In Wales a few weeks ago I well remember an American survey done on firms in Wales which showed their productivity is as good as anywhere and mostly it's come from new firms which have moved in. They've got a new union structure, one company, one union, that leads to no restrictive practices and when that happens they're really good. Certainly some firms are folding up and going off the Value Added Tax Register but the interesting thing is that as many firms are coming on to the Register. So it looks as if new firms are being started or smaller ones expanding and the rate of coming on is equal to—and at the moment slightly above—the rate of going off. Yes, so there is hope. I can give you other examples, people using redundancy money to start up … . [end p3]
Q
Prime Minister, may I ask you how you view the prospect of a stoppage, an official stoppage, at British Leyland?
PM
I think it would be a tragedy. It would be a tragedy for British Leyland, a tragedy for all those who supply British Leyland, a tragedy for the taxpayer who has backed British Leyland and Michael Edwardes with their money and a tragedy for Britain. And I hope it won't happen. We've backed Michael Edwardes and we shall leave him to tackle affairs at British Leyland, happy in the knowledge that they're in good hands.
Q
May I ask you finally, Prime Minister, why the Government decided not to honour those athletes who brought much prestige to Britain by winning a gold medal in Moscow?
PM
We advised people not to go to Moscow. We felt that to go there at a time when Russia was still in Afghanistan, and she still is, would in fact give aid and comfort and prestige to the Russian Government which we felt they should not have. The Russians are still in Afghanistan holding down a people by force. They are still in a state of preparedness if they ever decided to go into Poland. I hope they won't. But that is a kind of country that one is dealing with—the oppression there is no better since the Helsinki accords, indeed in some cases it's even worse. We gave advice. We could hardly advise honours contrary to the advice we had previously given.
Q
Prime Minister, thank you very much.